Will the German labour market take away workers from the East?

Experts estimate that the largest group of foreigners currently supplying the Polish labor market are Ukrainian citizens. Nearly one and a half million neighbours from across the eastern border constitute a significant workforce, which to a large extent eliminates labour shortages in Poland. It is therefore hardly surprising that the law adopted by the German government in December 2018 on the relaxation of the regulations on the employment of employees from outside the EU raises concerns among Polish employers.

Almost immediately after the announcement of the German government’s decision, many different reports examining the preferences of Ukrainian employees appeared on the recruitment market. Depending on the survey, about 75-85% of Ukrainians are satisfied with work in our country, while when it comes to the declared willingness to go to Germany, the data are very divergent. In one material, we read that 25% of Ukrainian citizens (375,000) are interested in leaving our country for their western neighbors, while subsequent authors give a result of 59% (885,000). On this basis, is it possible to clearly state whether this problem can pose a real threat to domestic entrepreneurs? In my opinion, no.

At CPC Consulting Group, we decided to take a closer look at the matter, comparing the above data with information from the German market. The fact is that Germany is experiencing an acute shortage of specialists. According to data from the third quarter of 2018, a record approx. 1.24 million professionals, engineers and people from the IT industry are needed. This was the direct reason for the German government’s adoption of the draft immigration law mentioned above, aimed at facilitating the employment of specialists from outside the EU. It is worth noting, however, that the relaxation of the existing regulations, which comes into force on 1 January 2020, only abolishes the obligation to test the labour market. The so-called priority test, because it is what we are talking about, consisted in proving by a German employer that it did not find employees who were German citizens willing to fill a given position and therefore decided to hire a foreigner. However, other standards will be maintained, i.e. the ability to support oneself, possession of the required qualifications, education and professional experience, and knowledge of the German language.

Therefore, it seems that the change in the regulations on the employment of foreigners from outside the EU will apply only to employees with qualifications and professional experience. The German government, on the other hand, has made it clear that it is not interested in hiring people from so-called “third world countries” who do not have qualifications and do not speak German. The local labour offices promise a reliable verification of diplomas and professional experience. And because the education system of our western neighbors is significantly different from the education systems in other countries, finding employment may turn out to be a big problem for workers from the East.

In addition, recalling the years when Poland joined the European Union (2004), it is worth noting that our employees had to wait 7 years for the possibility of legal employment in Germany, precisely because of the fear of flooding the market with cheap labor. While the economic situation in Germany has changed, the question remains to what extent the mentality of German citizens and entrepreneurs has followed the same path. Based on 10 years of experience in working with entrepreneurs from across the Oder, I am far from saying that our western neighbours will decide on a large scale of employment of such a culturally different nation as the citizens of Ukraine.

Knowing the German labor market, it is worth remembering that trade unions are very active there. Bearing in mind the mistakes made in the 1960s and 1970s, they will want at all costs to avoid a situation of a renewed influx of workforce, which will not support the economy, but will only become a beneficiary of a rich social welfare system. Protecting themselves already at the legal stage, our neighbours have specified in the act that they do not envisage any actions to support foreigners from outside the EU in organisational or social issues. The German government expects full independence in the search for accommodation and work, as well as financing the stay in the country by non-EU job seekers. In this situation, we should not forget about the significant differences not only in earnings, but also in the cost of living on the German and Polish markets. The lack of support, especially in the initial phases of their stay in Germany, may turn out to be a reason for resignation for many foreigners and, as a result, strongly verify today’s declarations of Ukrainian citizens.

Therefore, looking at the risk of losing employees from the point of view of Polish employers, it is worth emphasizing the advantages of working in Poland, especially for people from Ukraine. The lack of an assimilation barrier and the similarity of cultures, social problems, costs of living, and above all national languages in Poland and Ukraine means that they do not feel afraid of coming and adapting to our country. In addition, Polish employers often help them with all formalities related to the legalization of work and stay, offer accommodation, transport and a number of additional bonuses that are not in the German offer.

Taking into account all the above arguments, in my opinion, the fears of Polish entrepreneurs about the mass loss of Ukrainian workers may turn out to be significantly exaggerated. Although there is a probability that Poland will become a transit place for some Ukrainians on their way to the West – after earning a certain amount of money in our country, they will decide to leave – but it will be a slow, several-year process, for which you will be able to prepare by bringing workers from other eastern countries, such as Moldova, Nepal, India, Azerbaijan or Vietnam.