The war in Ukraine and the Polish labour market
It is estimated that on the eve of the outbreak of the armed conflict in our eastern neighbours, there were 1-1.3 million Ukrainians in Poland1. Of these, a significant group joined the ranks of employees in the manufacturing, construction and logistics industries. Has the war already affected the labor market? What changes can be expected in the near future?
Status today
So far, there has been no clear decrease in the number of employees from Ukraine, according to Katarzyna Dąderewicz, director of the foreign recruitment department at LeasingTeam, a leading employment agency in the country. However, this may be due to the fact that so far no mass conscription of people abroad has been introduced to the army.
– Currently monly single trips, which we estimate at about 1-2% of the total number of Ukrainian employees – says Katarzyna Dąderewicz. – Customers also do not raise concerns about the smooth delivery of human resources. However, we should remember that the war has united Ukrainians as a nation very strongly, so it will not be a surprise to us if the number of returns to their homeland increases dramatically in the coming days,” he adds.
If this happens, the loss of employees may prove painful for the Polish labor market, as Ukrainians are the main force in many companies and industries: manufacturing, logistics (warehouses), construction.
It is already becoming more and more difficult to recruit employees for typically male positions, requiring physical fitness. Until now, these vacancies have been largely filled by Ukrainian citizens, not only those permanently residing in Poland, but also those who come regularly on temporary contracts. Currently, they no longer have such a possibility due to the ban on leaving the country, which applies to all men from 18 to 60 years of age.
Days and weeks
Anticipating the problems with recruiting staff from Ukraine, employers are opening up to employees of other nations, e.g. Georgia, Armenia, Moldova, and even Mexico or African countries. However, they are increasingly afraid of coming to Polish, a direct neighbor of the country where hostilities are taking place. “Even today, we have received four refusals to come to Polish from people to whom we have already provided full legalization of stay and work ,” says Agnieszka Haponik, Business Development and Marketing Director at LeasingTeam Group.
Many people wonder whether the Polish labor market will be entered by the mass influx of war refugees from Ukraine? – Answering this question, we must bear in mind that mainly women with children are fleeing to Polish. When crossing the border, they first focus on providing shelter, and only after some time do they start thinking about organizing childcare and looking for work. So far, almost 2 million refugees have arrived in Polish, only some of whom have started to actively look for employment. The situation may change in the near future due to new regulations that allow Ukrainian refugees to work legally in the European Union, and therefore also in Poland without the need to obtain official permits. This only applies to war refugees who entered the EU after 23 February 2022 and applied for temporary protection.
In the face of the above information, the question arises as to what part of refugees from Ukraine will remain in Poland, and what percentage will go deep into the EU in search of work.
– Poland remains the country of first choice for Ukrainians due to cultural similarities, understandable, easy-to-learn language or direct proximity to their home country, which is extremely important for them in the current situation. Therefore, it can be assumed that despite the full openness of the market throughout the EU, the majority of refugees will decide to look for work in Poland – explains Agnieszka Haponik.
This is positive information, taking into account the fact that over time and to some extent, refugees could fill vacancies in specialized positions, for which there is a lot of demand in Poland, and currently it is difficult to find such employees. We are talking about the medical industry (nurses, midwives, doctors), textile (seamstresses), education (teachers, caregivers, kindergarten teachers), but also IT.
Possible scenarios
Three directions of development of the situation on the labour market can be assumed.
First of all, both employers and employment agencies will diversify the list of countries from which employees can be recruited. – The area of search should be significantly expanded – open up to employees from Asia, Africa and South America. However, clients must be aware that bringing employees from further areas requires several months, so they should plan their activities today and commission the agency with the need for employees in the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2022 – says Katarzyna Dąderewicz from LeasingTeam.
Secondly – in the short term, due to the large influx of women from Ukraine, companies should consider remodelling the organisation of work so as to be able to increase the percentage of women while maintaining the current level of employment.
Thirdly – the development of automation. Already today, most warehouses and many production plants rely on automation. The last years of the pandemic have contributed to the development of such solutions. The current war will make companies invest in this type of tools and systems even more willingly.
– The situation on the labour market is complicated, dynamic and, above all, difficult to predict. However, the pandemic has taught us to react quickly and find appropriate solutions – emphasizes Agnieszka Haponik.
1 https://www.bankier.pl/wiadomosc/Gorny-Liczba-Ukraincow-w-Polsce-wrocila-do-poziomu-sprzed-pandemii-statystyki-moga-byc-zaburzone-8239097.html
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