Opening up the German labour market to non-EU workers. What does this mean for Polish?
From 01.03.2020, a new law on the inflow of professional labour (Fachkräfteeinwanderungsgesetz) will come into force in our western neighbours, which is to facilitate the employment in Germany by citizens of non-EU countries.
Economic situation in Germany
Although the demand for employees in Germany is high, the last quarters of 2019 brought a decrease in the number of vacancies. In Q3 last year, there were 1.36 million, which is 30,000 fewer than in Q2. According to Bloomberg, the latest data on orders in German industry are also not optimistic, and are an important indicator forecasting the volume of future production. December 2019 saw an unexpected decline of as much as 8.7% year-on-year, the downward trend continues for the 19th consecutive month, and the pace of decline is the fastest in more than a decade. Therefore, it is in vain to look for signs of revival or even stabilization. Therefore, the current condition of the German economy is not conducive to employment growth.
Facilitation, but not for everyone
As for the provisions of the act itself, the facilitations apply only to qualified employees, i.e. people with higher education or with specific professional qualifications, and concern the abolition of the obligation to examine the priority right (checking whether a given job can be taken up by a German or EU citizen) and the abolition of restrictions on specific professions (Engpassberufe). At the same time, the new regulation imposes important requirements that a candidate must meet in order to take up a job, i.e. have documented professional qualifications and/or education equivalent to German, demonstrate knowledge of German at least at B1 level (only 2-4% of Ukrainian citizens know it at this level), and have the means to live until they earn their first income.
Verification of whether the candidate meets the requirements imposed by law means the need to properly organize the entire process on the German side. Meanwhile, there is still no detailed information about the coordination points examining applications for recognition of qualifications, or about the introduction of a digitized procedure and the implementation of an accelerated procedure for employers.
The high initial costs they have to bear are also a factor inhibiting the mass influx of candidates from outside the EU to Germany. On the one hand, these are the costs of stay (before the candidate completes all the procedures, obtains a temporary residence permit for the purpose of work, which can take several weeks, and finally takes up work and receives the first salary), on the other hand, these are the administrative costs related to obtaining the necessary permits, e.g. translation costs, which can amount to several hundred euros. Regardless of the initial investments, a visiting employee must also take into account the high current costs of living, renting an apartment or transport. Therefore, despite the potential attractiveness of the German labour market, the actual profit of employees does not have to differ significantly from that in Poland in a similar position.
Employees and employment agencies from Ukraine are of course interested in working in Germany, but the conditions mentioned here are objective barriers, often insurmountable. An additional difficulty is the lack or insufficient knowledge of German labor law, lack of knowledge about employment conditions, work rules and business culture. This means that there is a great need to educate the Ukrainian market in this area.
Destabilization of the Polish labor market?
So, is Poland threatened by the destabilization of the labor market caused by the mass economic emigration of Ukrainians to Germany? In the short and medium term, the Polish market should not record an outflow of staff, especially because Ukrainian citizens work in Poland mainly in the blue collar segment, and the German law opens up opportunities only for highly qualified and educated employees. In addition, although the prospect of working in Germany seems tempting, the theoretical advantages overshadow the practical obstacles: high costs and procedural requirements that neither employees nor recruitment companies in Ukraine are and will not be ready for in the coming years.
To sum up, although the penetration of the labour market in our western neighbour will soon begin and it can be assumed that it will gradually grow over the next 2-3 years, it will not be a labour market achievable for everyone. According to experts, the real outflow of workers from Ukraine to Germany is a perspective of at least 5 years. Similar conclusions were unanimously reached by HRM industry experts at the recently concluded (January 24 this year) Meet UA Summit conference.
Weronika Jarosz
Business Development Specialist at LeasingTeam Group
Doświadczony analityk rynku pracy, specjalizuje się w badaniach nad trendami zatrudnienia i zmianami w strukturze zawodowej. Jego artykuły, publikowane w renomowanych czasopismach branżowych, pomagają czytelnikom zrozumieć dynamikę rynku pracy.
